Trump Edges Ahead of Harris in Latest National Poll
Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time in weeks, according to a new poll.For the first time in weeks, former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in one of the most-watched national polls. The New York Times/Siena College survey shows Trump leading Harris 48% to 47% among likely voters nationally. This marks a significant shift, raising the possibility that Harris's momentum has waned just before their upcoming debate.
This recent poll mirrors trends observed in late July when Trump initially led Harris after President Biden's departure from the race. Other polls also indicate that Trump is regaining ground against his rival, following the Democratic National Convention.
Despite Trump's narrow lead, 70% of voters and 37% of his supporters find some of his remarks offensive. In contrast, Harris had surged in the polls following her ascent to the top of the ticket, capturing the lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics aggregate. She also made gains in battleground state polls, which remain highly competitive.
On key issues, voters show varying preferences: Harris is trusted more than Trump on abortion (54% to 49%) and democracy (50% to 45%), while Trump is preferred on the economy (55% to 42%) and immigration (53% to 43%). The top issues for voters are the economy (21%), abortion (14%), immigration (12%), inflation and the cost of living (7%), and democracy (7%).
Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans in enthusiasm, with 91% of Democrats expressing enthusiasm compared to 85% of Republicans. However, 56% of respondents believe Harris does not represent a change from the unpopular Biden administration. Only 25% view her as a representative of major change, and 15% see her as a minor change. In contrast, 51% feel Trump represents major change, 10% view him as a minor change, and 35% believe he represents more of the same.
Political strategists, including James Carville, suggest that the candidate who positions themselves as the changemaker will have the upper hand. Carville recently advised Harris to publicly distance herself from Biden on major policies.
Trump’s favorability ratings have slightly declined, with 46% viewing him favorably (27% very favorable, 19% somewhat favorable) and 52% viewing him unfavorably (10% somewhat unfavorable, 42% very unfavorable). This is down from 48% favorable in July. Harris, on the other hand, has a favorability rating of 45%, with just 24% holding very favorable views, and about half of the respondents view her unfavorably.
The poll suggests that Harris’ momentum is weakening ahead of Tuesday’s debate
Harris, despite trailing Trump in favorability, retains a narrow advantage in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polls, with a 1.4 percentage point lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
The New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted from September 3 to 6, sampled 1,695 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio had predicted a "honeymoon" period for Harris following Biden's endorsement, and Harris’s campaign has highlighted her fundraising success, with $361 million raised in August compared to Trump’s $130 million.
The pivotal debate between Trump and Harris, hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia, is set for Tuesday. This will be their first in-person meeting and has the potential to significantly impact the race as it heads into the final stretch before Election Day on November 5.
Tags
Politics