In a fresh presidential poll commissioned by the Cook Political Report in seven swing states and released on Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup 48% to 47%.
Harris has closed the gap with Trump since Cook’s previous Swing State Project survey in May, when Trump, the Republican nominee, led President Joe Biden by three points overall, and was ahead or tied in every one of the seven swing states.
The one state where Trump still holds a slim lead is Nevada, though Harris, the Democratic nominee, has narrowed Trump’s margin by six points since May.
Harris’ polling surge might not have caught up to voters yet. When asked: “Regardless of who you will vote for, who do you believe will win,” 45% said Trump and 41% chose Harris.
Here’s a look state by state:
Arizona: Harris, 48-46% (May: Trump +1)
Georgia: Tied, 48-48% (May: Trump +3)
Michigan: Harris, 49-46% (May: Trump +2)
Nevada: Trump, 48-45% (May: Trump +9)
North Carolina: Harris, 48-47% (May: Trump +7)
Pennsylvania: Harris, 49-48% (May: Trump +3)
Wisconsin: Harris, 49-46% (May: Tied)
According to Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report, these are the poll’s takeaways:
— Voters remain pessimistic about inflation, but Harris isn’t (yet) taking the blame.
— Immigration is Trump’s strongest issue; Harris has a large advantage on the abortion issue.
— Fewer voters chose RFK Jr., and more came from Trump’s base than Harris’.
— Undecided and third-party voters dislike Trump’s style but are more inflation-conscious than the overall electorate.
Harris is benefiting primarily from being seen as representing a chance to move on from the past eight years and a new generation of leadership; Biden-Trump Double Haters see her as a vote for moving on from them.
— Trump being seen as erratic and out of control is a bigger liability than his criminal convictions or age; it’s also a bigger liability than Harris’ experience and gravitas.
Harris’ favorability has risen 13 points since May, according to the survey, which was conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group and polled likely voters across seven battlegrounds in late July and early August. An equal percentage — 49% — view her favorably and unfavorably. Her net favorability score has increased substantially among Democrats (by 20 points) and Black women (by 30 points).
Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability has remained roughly the same, with 47% viewing him favorably and 52% unfavorably.
More from Walter:
Harris’ success in closing the gap is driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters.In May, in the five-way horserace including third party candidates, just 82% of the voters who supported Biden in 2020 were committed to voting for him this fall. Harris is getting 91% of those voters. Among independent voters, Harris leads Trump 48% to 40% in the 2-way head-to-head. In May, Trump led Biden among independent voters by three points (41% to 38%).
Trump, however, continues to hold an advantage over Harris on issues like the border and immigration (+14 points), getting inflation and the cost of living under control (+6) and dealing with crime and violence (+4). Undecided voters and third-party voters overwhelmingly say that they are more worried about Harris setting economic policy than they are about Trump setting immigration policy.
In a poll released on Tuesday, by Redfield Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph, Trump leads Harris in five out of 10 identified swing states. The candidates are tied in two states with Harris leading in three. This poll included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Arizona
- Harris – 44%
- Trump- 43%
- Kennedy – 4%
Florida
- Trump – 47%
- Harris – 41%
- Kennedy – 5%
Georgia
- Trump – 46%
- Harris – 44%
- Kennedy – 3%
Michigan
- Trump – 42%
- Harris – 41%
- Kennedy – 5%
Minnesota
- Harris – 46%
- Trump – 41%
- Kennedy – 3%
Nevada
- Harris – 40%
- Trump – 40%
- Kennedy – 5%
New Mexico
- Harris – 44%
- Trump – 37%
- Kennedy - 8%
North Carolina
- Trump – 44%
- Harris – 41%
- Kennedy – 8%
Pennsylvania
- Trump – 46%
- Harris – 44%
- Kenedy – 3%
Wisconsin
- Harris – 43%
- Trump – 43%
- Kennedy – 3%
Trump’s lead in several states — including Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania — has narrowed significantly in recent weeks. Nevada has switched from being a GOP 2-point lead to being a tie; Arizona has flipped from Trump being up by 3 points to Harris being 1 point ahead; while Harris’ lead in Minnesota has expanded from 3 points to 5.